German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius speaks during the joint press conference with his Philippine counterpart Gilberto Teodoro (not pictured) at a hotel in Manila on August 4, 2024. Photo: AFP

On August 4, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius met with his Philippine counterpart Gilberto Teodoro in Manila. The meeting marked the first visit by a German defense minister to the Philippines, coming at a time of heightened tensions over the South China Sea issue due to provocations from the Philippines. The two sides decided to sign a defense cooperation arrangement this year to deepen their military ties. Additionally, Pistorius emphasized Germany's support for the 2016 South China Sea arbitration award by the Hague Tribunal, claiming that it "remains valid."

"Germany's public support for the so-called South China Sea arbitration award, and its use of 'freedom of navigation' to meddle in the South China Sea issue are a blatant provocation against China that exacerbates tensions in the region," an anonymous expert told the Global Times.

The expert believes that the military cooperation between the Philippines and Germany is influenced by the US, which, facing a diminished hegemony, is seeking to enlist more allies to expand its presence in the Asia-Pacific region as part of its Indo-Pacific Strategy. The South China Sea and the Philippines are crucial components of this strategy, and Germany's actions align with US interests. While China maintains a position of "non-acceptance, non-participation, and non-recognition" of the arbitration ruling, Germany's speculative move could further complicate the already intricate issue in the region.

In recent years, Germany has also vigorously pursued its own "Indo-Pacific" strategy. In September 2020, Germany released a document titled "Germany-Europe-Asia: shaping the 21st century together," which clearly stated that the "Indo-Pacific region is becoming the key to shaping the international order in the 21st century." This strategy reflects Germany's consideration of geopolitical and economic shifts in the Asia-Pacific. Before visiting the Philippines, Pistorius visited the US state of Hawaii and South Korea, publicly stating that it's important for German to participate in the Indo-Pacific region. Germany also joined the US-led United Nations Command in South Korea on August 2, believing that "European security is closely linked to security in the Indo-Pacific region."

However, it's unwise for German to intervene in the South China Sea issue, which can be described as the forefront of competition between China and the US. 

Germany should ask itself: Following the US bandwagon, meddling in Asia-Pacific affairs, being shackled by US national strategy and NATO strategy, provoking China's core interests - does this aligns with its current situation and national security interests? Is it worthwhile for Germany to damage its relationship with China, which will only facilitate the advancement of US global hegemony interests?

Currently, many US allies, including Germany, find themselves deeply entangled in the Ukraine crisis. Eric Gujer, editor-in-chief of the Neue Zürcher Zeitung, summarized in an article on August 2 that the Ukraine crisis has made Germany a loser. He argued that today, Germany is militarily weak, polarized between East and West and economically more vulnerable than it has been for a long time, and that it's evident Berlin's status is declining. In this context, the symbolic significance of the Germany-Philippines cooperation outweighs its practical significance. What Germany can provide to the Philippines is extremely limited. Its support for the Philippines at the cost of damaging ties with China brings no benefits to Berlin. 

Germany has not yet absorbed the adverse effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, yet it is now extending its involvement to the Asia-Pacific region to "assist" the Philippines, directly provoking its main economic partner, China. Such deeper involvement in the Asia-Pacific region brings no benefits but only harms Germany. Mutually beneficial cooperation between China and Germany is advantageous for both sides. Even Pistorius himself admitted that it is necessary to keep up cooperation with China wherever it's appropriate. 

There is great potential and space for rational and pragmatic cooperation between China and Germany, which is mutually beneficial and win-win. Germany should restrain its impulses to provoke on core issues with China and preserve the overall friendly relationship.